Broken Heartlands by Sebastian Payne
Most people expected the Tories to win the 2019 election but Payne, a political journalist for The Financial Times, was one of the few to predict Johnson’s landslide victory and the crumbling of the so-called Red Wall, Labour’s hitherto rock-solid tranche of seats in the north of England. Payne may look and sound like a nerdy sixth former but he is an astute reader of the political landscape and his prophetic success may also have come from his links with voters in the Red Wall seats having grown up in a working-class family from the north east. Whatever, as a result of his insights, his employers encouraged him to spend some time touring the former Red Wall seats, talking to a range of people in an attempt to identify the factors that led to this seismic political shift, and to reflect on whether or not this shift was a blip or something more significant.
This political journey of discovery takes place over a year and he speaks with local voters and local northern politicians of all colours, business people, academics and some big beasts such as Blair, Brown, Osbourne and our current caretaker PM. And there, of course, is the problem for this type of book. Despite the fact that Payne adds a postscript to the paperback version that covers the recent Tory by-election losses and the increasing pressure on Johnson to resign, the final farcical dethroning had not occurred.
Does that, therefore, fatally undermine his thoughts and insights about the changing politics in a part of the country? Well, no – the analysis of why the Tories hoovered up so many Labour voters in the now broken heartlands of the title is nuanced, thoughtful and thorough – but yes, the recent shenanigans do challenge one of his conclusions about the entrenched position of the Tories and Labour’s distance from power. The fact is that Johnson’s duplicity, particularly over the covid rule breaking, and the supine behaviour of most of the leadership candidates does appear to have inflicted real harm on the Tory brand, as well as their reputation for competence. Furthermore, the tide seems to be turning on Brexit; its damaging effects are becoming apparent in the empty shelves and the obstacles that many small and medium sized enterprises are encountering. The next election does not now look so hopeless for Keir Starmer.
That’s getting ahead of myself, though. Payne can lay claim to have provided much of the research and observations about what went wrong for Labour in their former heartlands. Much of it seems familiar to someone like me who loves consuming anything about UK politics. In many senses that is credit to Payne whose influence and ubiquity on political programmes have enabled the ideas to permeate into political discourse. Starmer’s cautious and gradual re-positioning of Labour seems to me to be a response to the issues raised in Payne’s road trip of discovery.
There’s no doubt that Corbyn’s extreme left positions, his apparent lack of love for the country and “we know what’s best for you” attitude turned off many former Labour voters. However, Payne is willing to dig deeper and looks at the way that this trend pre-dated Corbyn. Time after time, people in towns where the heavy industries had been replaced by safer and often better paid jobs in the service sector felt that the Tories’ message of aspiration and self-reliance was more appealing. Of course, different areas had different experiences following this de-industrialisation: there’s no doubt that coal mining areas seemed to have been punished with little investment in replacement employment other than public sector jobs – successive Tory and Labour governments alike were blamed for this and made the voters susceptible to Johnson’s vague but hopeful “levelling up” agenda. Whatever the experiences since the realignments of the 1980s, many of Payne’s interviewees talked about the loss of purpose and sense of community; working in unionised, tightly knit communities, where most of the men worked in the same jobs and felt that these jobs were central to the health of the nation, fostered a proud, regional identity. Since then, the constant reference to being left behind and a brain drain down south of the towns’ most talented youth were indications of a loss of purpose.
Yet, as Payne assiduously reveals, this is only part of the picture. People and politicians of all political creeds felt that there was hope in the increasing devolution to the leaders of the north’s big metropolitan areas. Talking to Andy Street and Andy Burnham, Tory and Labour mayors respectively, gave a sense that joined up thinking and creative initiatives were being developed to improve transport and create the right environment for a new manufacturing and technical sector to emerge. This led onto a fascinating discussion of the skills and attitudes that education should be providing for the range of young people in our country and not just the university bound. As I say, this is a book that goes beyond just identifying why Labour got hammered. It looks at the factors behind the nation’s long productivity decline and the increasing gap between the haves and have nots in our country. Productivity, by the way, is at least as good as other western European countries in the south east corner of England around London, and educational standards in both private and state schools in this region are superior to our European neighbours. The exact reverse is the case for most of the rest of the UK.
In many respects, this is a hopeful book because Payne encounters many people who have an abundance of ideas and energy and are working hard to resuscitate those traditional towns and cities away from London that have a proud history and defiant sense of identity. The stumbling block seems to be national government that thinks in the short term and is suspicious of ceding too much real power to local politicians. Time and time again they seem to set the wrong priorities. Payne offers no solutions other than the myriad ideas of his interviewees which are themselves often at odds. As already mentioned, a more inclusive, less narrow and skills rich education system would help as well as investment in people’s pastoral needs wherever they are born, and investment in infrastructure that adds to productivity and enterprise rather than the vanity construction projects criticised in this book.
We often say that our political system is broken, and the downfall of Johnson and unedifying leadership contest seems to emphasise that point. Might PR be the answer, or the emergence of new political parties, or even better paid politicians from whom we expect more? Perhaps to all of those. Yet the national machinery below the politicians and legislators still seems to work. The best part of our response to covid was down to scientists, public health bodies and essential workers; think also the way the police and public health officers averted catastrophe in Salisbury. There are many good people in this country who care and have something to offer, and Payne’s book makes you aware that they are desperate to be given the opportunity to repair all the broken heartlands across the country. I just don’t think Johnson’s levelling up agenda is going to achieve that or lock Labour out of power for generations.